Friday, July 8, 2011

MARINERS: Doug Fister and the Mariners’ baffling lack of run support

You’ve likely heard about the Mariners offensive production level. But if you haven’t, prepare to have your eyes bleed.

The Mariners are last in the Majors in batting average (.224), runs scored (293), on base percentage (.291), slugging percentage (.333), 25th in home runs (55), and 29th in doubles (127).

Can you say worst offense in baseball?

You may feel like the fans are getting the worst of this. No one wants to watch an offense that scores 3.32 runs a game… it’s degrading to fan morale when the M’s only score 6 runs against the Oakland A’s and lose a game 0-2. But if there’s one person who’s really felt the pain of this historically bad offense, it’s Doug Fister.

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Look at Fister’s ERA: 3.09. 3.09 is an above average ERA, even better than Trevor Cahill (3.17) and Tim Lincecum (3.14). Cahill has a record of 8-6, while Lincecum has a decent 6-7 record. So, if Doug Fister has a better earned run average than both of these guys, we can only assume he has a better win-loss record, right?

Wrong. Very wrong.

Fister’s win-loss record is a paltry 3-10. He is averaging 2.51 runs of support per start, worst in the major leagues. Doug has tallied 11 “quality starts” this season (a quality start being one in which a pitcher goes at least six innings and allows three runs or fewer). Of those 11 quality starts, he’s earned a win in just two of them.

Of Fister’s 18 total starts this year, the Mariners have scored two runs or less in thirteen of those starts. Fister is 1-10 in those 14 starts, with a 3.21 ERA.

Doug Fister isn’t an elite ace, but there’s no way this ever improving 27 year-old should be 3-10. If Fister played with Boston, New York, Texas, or Cincinnati, his record would likely be 9-4 or somewhere around there. Sadly, I don’t have the number crunching abilities of USS Mariner, so I can’t get an exact number on the number of wins he would have.

Plus, school’s out, so I’ve already lost 80% of my math abilities.


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