
We know by now that it was a bad trade. The move that brought dominant starting pitcher Erik Bedard to Seattle also stripped the franchise of key prospects, players who are already paying off for the Orioles.
Both Adam Jones and George Sherrill have been to the All-Star game, and Chris Tillman is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. But how much does Seattle actually miss these players?
David Aardsma has been electric as a closer, and the Mariners still have plenty of strong arms in the minors, most notably 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont. In terms of impact, the trade really boils down to Jones or Bedard--who would you rather have?
To continue...
Pro Bedard
In 2008, Bedard became a bit of a scapegoat for Seattle's horrendous season. The big-money acquisition of the offseason, he was supposed to be the final piece needed to finally return to contention and reach the playoffs.
Instead, he missed more than half his starts to injury. But with a solid 3.67 ERA, he managed to join Ryan Rowland-Smith as the only Mariners starter to post a winning record--6-4.
This season, he's been flat-out dominant. His 2.63 ERA is a career-high, and his 1.142 WHIP is almost 0.2 points higher than his career average. Despite missing some starts to injury, Bedard has been the best left-handed starter in the majors.
With Bedard, Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn, Seattle has perhaps the best three-man rotation in the majors. With the third-best team ERA in the majors, pitching is the reason for Seattle's success this season, and Bedard has been a major part of that.
Also, without Bedard, that means Brandon Morrow is a full-time starter. That alone should necessitate his role in Seattle.
Bottom-line, a top-flight starting pitcher is more valuable to a team's success than a good, perhaps even great, position player.
Pro Jones
At the time of the trade, Jones was considered the best prospect in Seattle's minor-league system. In his final season at AAA Tacoma, Jones cranked 25 home runs in 101 games, and posted a .314 batting average and .967 OPS before his call-up to the majors.
Now in 2009, he is beginning to show his true potential. Not only is he a terrific defensive outfielder, but Jones' .303 batting average and 12 home runs would each be good enough to rank second-best on the Mariners.
That kind of offensive pop would prove to be invaluable in a Mariners lineup currently ranked 28th in runs scored.
Bedard, on the other hand, has yet to prove he can be the dominant long-term starter Seattle needs. Only once in his career has he not missed multiple starts in a season, and he also lacks the stamina to go multiple innings.
In his two seasons with Seattle, Bedard's average innings per start has fallen far short of six innings. To compare, Hernandez has never fallen below six innings and is averaging 6.9 innings per start this season. Now that's an ace.
Conclusion
Whichever player you favor, there's no going back on the trade now. The main question is whether Seattle should trade Bedard while his stock is high or keep the oft-sullen lefty.
Without him, Seattle can probably kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. Former starter Ryan Rowland-Smith, the best option to replace Bedard in the rotation, has been up and down in his rehab time with AAA Tacoma, posting a 4.56 ERA in nine starts.
But then again, if Seattle management feels Bedard will never be the ace they need, perhaps a trade for some extra pop in the lineup would be for the best in the long run.
Whatever Seattle does with him now could play a major role in the success of the rebuilding process. Decisions, decisions...
Reach Jeff Richards at nextseasonsports@gmail.com
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