Saturday, April 18, 2009

MARINERS: Which Bedard will emerge this season?

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Erik Bedard has been enjoying some early season success so far, and it begs the question: will we get to see the 2007 Cy Young candidate or the 2008 version that few want to remember?

It’s tough to say what kind of Bedard we will see for the rest of year. But Bedard’s performance this season will boil down to one factor: how he handles expectations.

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Bedard was a shell of his amazing 2007 season when he went 13-5 with 221 strikeouts. In 2008, Bedard only managed six wins and 75 strikeouts, and was injured for much of the year. But even when he was out on the mound, Bedard did not seem to have the same magic as he did in 2007.

It seemed as if the high expectations coming into the season weighed heavily upon him, and Bedard did not respond well to the pressure of being the ace of a supposed up and coming team.

He also had a very volatile relationship with the media when reporters began to ask why he wasn’t performing up to the level we had seen in 2007. It added to the pressure and ultimately resulted in a disappointing season after a career year.

Expectations are what Bedard seems to either thrive on or crumble under. When expectations are low, like when he was on a last place team in Baltimore and under the radar, Bedard could go out and strike out 10 batters on any given outing. But when expectations are high, it seemed as if he couldn’t take the heat.

Mariners fans have grown too accustomed to the big free agent signing that doesn’t pan out. We’ve seen it before, and we don’t want to see it again, so there is a lot of pressure on Bedard this season. He has to perform well under expectations, and he hasn’t shown yet in a Seattle uniform that he can do that.

A major factor adding to the pressure is that Mariners fans saw the proclaimed “Next Griffey” in Adam Jones get dealt in the Bedard deal, along with proven reliever George Sherrill and Top 50 prospect Chris Tillman.

The Mariners gave away their apparent future in Jones and Tillman and some present they could have used as well in Sherrill, and Mariners fans were frustrated that they dealt away so much for the performance they got out of Bedard.

Sherrill in his first season with the Orioles was an All-Star reliever and got 31 saves for the O’s during the 2008 season. J.J. Putz only managed to get about half that total last season, and since he was dealt to the Mets in the offseason, Mariners fans are beginning to look closer at what Sherrill accomplished last year and what he could bring to the team this year, a team without a proven closer.

Jones’ inconsistent hitting is something the Mariners could live without, and it is yet to be seen if Jones will ever live up to the hype he created while in Seattle’s minor league system, so it seems now that it was not the major loss in the Bedard deal. But with his raw athletic ability, you never know when he could put it all together and become an All-Star caliber player.

Tillman is the unknown quantity that Mariners fans will either be remorseful they let go or never know about. Tillman is a Top 50 prospect according to ESPN, and one scout described him as having the “it” factor and projected him to be a top of the rotation type. All this praise for Tillman even before he has yet to develop a top-level change-up and it could spell regret for M’s fans.

But for Bedard this year, he has a chance to go out and improve on his sub-par 2008 season because that disappointing year has lowered the expectations. The pressure seemed to also reduce by the fact Mariners fans came into this season expecting a rebuilding year.

But with Seattle’s early season success, fans may put their hopes and expectations squarely on Bedard.

And when those expectations come back, it will be interesting to see what Bedard we actually get. Because two off years in a row isn’t a fluke, it’s a problem.

Reach Drew Mitchell at nextseasonsports@gmail.com